Fewer Cows = Less Methane

California has established aggressive world-leading targets (SB 1383 [Lara 2016]) for reducing methane from dairy and other livestock (primarily beef cattle) sectors by 2040. As the California Air Resources Board's Analysis of Progress report correctly concludes, no single livestock methane reduction action can achieve the targeted reductions. Achieving the state’s targeted reductions requires a coordinated, comprehensive approach involving continued efficiency (fewer cows), methane avoidance, methane capture and utilization, as well as enteric methane reduction activities.

Producing more milk with fewer cows greatly reduces the carbon intensity of milk production. After a period of rapid herd growth in California between 1980 and 2008, the number of cows in California has steadily declined from 1.885 million milk cows in 2008 to 1.688 million in 2022, according to the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s most recent Census of Agriculture (2017-2022). This herd attrition has already accounted for approximately 2 million metric tons (MMTs) of CO2e reduction from the state’s dairy sector (a roughly 10% decrease). Continued and likely accelerated attrition will lead to an estimated additional 1 MMT CO2e reduction by 2030. That’s as much as 3 MMT annually.